Tom Bevan of Real Clear Politics thinks he's nailed the reason for the Clinton camp's demise: they didn't hit Obama with Jeremiah Wright early enough.

Clinton's first and biggest mistake, which eventually led to her undoing, can be summed up in a single question: how and why did her campaign miss Obama's association with Reverend Wright?

Put simply, had Reverend Wright been introduced to voters a few days before the Iowa caucuses, odds are Barack Obama would not be a hair's breadth away from clinching the Democratic nomination for President of the United States.

Actually, Tom, had Reverend Wright been introduced to voters a few days before the Iowa caucuses, Hillary might have finished an even more distant third place there than she did.  She also might have put into jeopardy even more critical victories she claimed on Super Tuesday, like New York State. 

Why?  Let's not forget that prior to Obama's win in Iowa, Clinton was still pulling a respectable 40-60% of the African-American vote in most polls.  This was in the late-2007 "Obama's not black enough" era, rather than the mid-April 2008 period of "Obama's a black radical Muslim terrorist elitist".  The Clinton name was not then anathema to the black community in early January—in fact, the Clintons were still quite popular.

Had Hillary chosen to go after a prominent black church over its racially controversial pastor, and Obama's association with him, so early, the bottom would have dropped out of her campaign.  Not only would she have likely lost Iowa by a bigger margin, she very well could have put New York into play for Obama, as one of the bedrocks of her support in the Empire State was NYC's African-American community.  She may not be the world's best politician, but she certainly knows a booby trap when she sees it.

Bevan is usually a pretty spot-on analyst, and Real Clear Politics is one of the best political sites on the web.  That said, he is also a conservative Republican, and I think his column today says more about his own political instincts than Hillary Clinton's. 

I believe Tom is a victim of the "Wright is Kryptonite" school of GOP political theory.  They see Jeremiah go off with "God damn America", they look around the room at all their white, exurban, NASCAR loving buddies, and start drooling.  "Hillary didn't even need to campaign this election—she just needed to play this YouTube clip of this black preacher dancing around like a crazy man over and over again!  Obama is toast!  What was she thinking?"

The truth is that one of the few honorable choices the Clinton campaign made this election was to avoid Wright like the plague.  About as tough as Hillary ever got on the subject was saying "He would not have been my pastor".  The Republicans won't be so kind, and they think this is the key to victory in November.

They are in for a rude awakening.  Our country is in the midst of a recession, two endless wars, a "war on terror", a housing market collapse, an energy crisis, and much, much more.  If the GOP thinks the American people want their elected officials focused on the rants of an obscure Chicago preacher, they should go have a conversation with Republican Greg Davis of Mississippi. 

After running ads against Democrat Travis Childers that linked him not only to famed black elitist Barack Obama, but Rev. Wright himself, as well as outspending Childers 2-1, Davis lost a very solid Republican district to the Democrat by eight points Tuesday night. 

Kryptonite indeed, fellas.

A reader writes:

Now that it's more or less clear that Hillary won't win the nomination, Edwards will endorse the candidate who probably will win it, and might ask Edwards to be his running-mate?  Not to sound cynical, especially since I am basically a fan of both of these men, but this endorsement coming at this point doesn't really surprise me.

I don't actually believe that Edwards has any interest in being anyone's vice-presidential nominee again, and I don't believe Obama has any intention of asking him.  Edwards brings no more to a veepship than he did for John Kerry, which was essentially nothing.  He didn't bring his A-Game to a debate with Dick Cheney, and he certainly didn't bring his home state of North Carolina.

Additionally, just because the Tarheel State is getting a little more purple these days doesn't mean Edwards has anything to do with it.  According to many N.C. politicos, he's generally considered a flash in the pan who never bothered to build a statewide organization during his single term in the U.S. Senate.  His endorsement now, in the wake of Clinton's West Virginia blowout, probably has more impact on the race than if he had presented it just prior to the North Carolina primary.

However, I think this reader has raised a larger point about the nature of these endorsements in general, especially the ones that have come Obama's way over the last two months.  I think there is less spontaneity in these decisions than the press encourages us to believe. 

Are we really to assume that John Edwards watched Barack Obama lose West Virginia last night by 40+ points, and woke up today deciding he should endorse him?  My hunch is that Edwards had decided to endorse Obama some time ago, had let the Obama campaign know, was thanked profusely, and told the endorsement would be rolled out at its most beneficial moment. 

What's the most beneficial moment for an endorsement?  It ain't when you're kicking ass, and you want to kick a little harder.  It's when you're getting kicked, and you want to reverse the direction. 

Endorsements are best used to change a negative news cycle.  Hillary Clinton just gave Barack Obama a 40+ point pummeling in W.V.  Good time to change the subject.  Ditto the Richardson and Casey endorsements, at the height of the (first) Jeremiah Wright debacle.  Ditto the Kerry endorsement after Obama's New Hampshire loss.  Ditto the Kennedy endorsement after Obama's Nevada loss.  Ditto the Joe Andrews endorsement after Obama's Pennsylvania loss. 

These things don't just happen spontaneously.  I firmly believe they are (for the most part) obtained in advance, and doled out strategically.  I think the more inevitable Obama's nomination became, the more my hypothesis holds true.

So what did Hillary get out of her 40+point shellacking in West Virginia?  22 hours of moderately positive news coverage.  And with the Edwards endorsement, that is OVER. 

And what did Edwards get out of endorsing Obama?  It's not the veepship.  It's either Attorney General, or—more to my liking—Labor Secretary, a moribund cabinet office he could add serious muscle and star power to.

I'll be posting a column on potential Obama vice picks in the next couple days.  I'll include more specific reasons on why neither Obama nor Edwards want him in that position.

It'll be tonight:

ABC News' Kate Snow, Raelyn Johnson, Sunlen Miller, and Rick Klein Report: Former Sen. John Edwards is endorsing Sen. Barack Obama's presidential candidacy Wednesday evening, in a dramatic attempt by the Obama campaign to answer concerns regarding Obama's appeal to working-class voters, several senior Democratic sources tell ABC News.

Lawrence O'Donnell, former Senate staffer, West Wing writer, and current big time political pundit, thinks he got a real scoop today, so huge he blared it across the front page of the Huffington Post website:

A senior campaign official and Clinton confidante has told me that there will be a Democratic nominee by June 15.  He could not bring himself to say the words "Hillary will drop out by June 15," but that is clearly what he meant.  I kept saying, "So, Hillary will drop out by June 15," and he kept saying, "We will have a nominee by June 15."

To quote Cape Fear's Max Cady, let's just break that down. 

Barack Obama has just erased any potential Hillary Clinton has of surpassing him in the pledged delegate count, and the popular vote.  He has eliminated all remaining momentum she carried out of Pennsylvania.  He has survived the most bruising weeks any candidate—Democrat or Republican—has experienced this election cycle.  Forced to quell the most radioactive racial and religious issues a politician can be faced with, he emerged from this crisis by routing Clinton in North Carolina, and essentially tying her in Indiana.  The Clinton campaign is bankrupt, both financially and politically.  The party is already coalescing around its new standard bearer.  The media has declared this primary season essentially over.

And Lawrence O'Donnell's big scoop is that the Clintons expect a nominee to be affirmed by June 15—five weeks away?  Well, hell's yeah we better know our nominee by June 15—that's two weeks after the last frigging primary of the season, in Puerto Rico!  Yeah, um, I think, by then, the superdelegates, the voters, the non-voters, the mentally challenged, the unborn, and the undead, will all know who the nominee is.  According to the Clintons, they're just not sure which person that will be.  But golly gee, they want Lawrence to know: someone will be picked by then.

Great scoop, Larry!  We can all breathe a big sigh of relief!

To quote Sen. Barack Obama, the day after he lost New Hampshire exactly four months ago, these words sum up my feelings today:

"My voice is a little hoarse.  My eyes are a little bleary.  My back is sore.  But my spirit is strong!"

We had a great night, folks.  The lack of sleep only adds to the giddiness!

I recall writing this at the top of my Live-Blogging entry from yesterday evening, just after 7pm:

HuffPo claims exit polling shows Obama up by 12% in N.C., up by 1% in Indiana.  Let's just remember—that's probably crap.

Final results for yesterdays primaries:

North Carolina
Obama: 56
Clinton: 42

Indiana
Clinton: 51
Obama: 49

Whoops.  Being that it got each margin within 2-3 points, I think the exit polling may have called the election closer than any of the mainstream polls leading up to these contests.  I don't believe that's happened in a major election since 2000.

What is Hillary facing today?  No donor base, for one: she's been revealed to have quietly donated $6.4 million to her campaign over the last month.  The donations that were trickling in will dry up even faster now. 

She's also facing the severe likelihood of superdelegates pouring over to Obama for the remainder of this week and into the next, and a pundit class that has almost universally declared the race over.  It is now a mathematical impossibility that she can overtake Obama in pledged delegates.  Same goes for the popular vote. 

She lost the black vote by an even greater margin than ever before, by some 93%.  The increased black voter participation likely is a result of the media and the Clinton camp overplaying their hand with the Jeremiah Wright scandal, causing even deeper alienation between Hillary and the black community.  There is no way on earth she could win a general election without them.  After Rev. Wright and North Carolina, if she was able somehow to still capture the nomination, she would have to find a way to win it without them.  That historic relationship is permanently breached at the national level.

So is it over for Hill?  You tell me.  I'm a devout skeptic.

1:10pm
With 99% of the vote reporting, NBC is finally calling Indiana for Hillary Clinton.  She's apparently won the state by 22,000 votes. 

And that's my cue to exit!  Night, folks!

12:25pm
Drudge is putting his neck out too:


12:09pm
I gotta say, this has been the most exciting election night of the primary since Obama took the upset win in Iowa.  We still don't know about Indiana yet, and it's after midnight.  Either way, he's had an amazing victory this evening.  His opponent may indeed be laying the groundwork to exit the race.  Apparently, she's cancelled not only her media appearances for tomorrow, but her public appearances as well.  I just heard Tim Russert say "we now know who the Democratic nominee will be."  Maybe like me he's just a little loopy at this hour, but...damn. 

11:45pm
First shift in Indiana in hours: from 52-48, it's now 51-49.  Barack just moved within 20,000 votes of Hillary.  Looks like Gary, IN is starting to finally trickle in.

11:35pm
The latest buzz is that Lake County "should report by midnight".  Right, and two hours ago they were saying by 10pm.  Let's hope we hear something soon!

10:46pm
Indiana!  All eyes on unreported Lake County, a heavily African-American part of the state.  This from an Indiana primary blog:

Mayor Rudy Clay came to his headquarters in Gary Tuesday night with a list of voting results showing overwhelming margins for Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton.

Many of the districts had Obama with triple digit totals and Clinton with totals in the single digits or teens.  One district had a result of 126-4.

9:36pm
A bit of a goof near the end of an otherwise stellar performance.  He describes "the American flag draped over my father's coffin."  If I'm correct on this, the flag would have been draped over his grandfather's coffin, who was a WWII veteran.  I do not believe Barack Obama, Sr., his dad, who was not an American citizen and certainly never served in the military, would have had the flag for his burial. 

It was a minor misspeak, he froze a bit when he said it, recognized it, moved on—it means nothing.  The opposition might very well trot it out in the background the next few days.  It will likely have all the impact of a spit in the ocean.

9:31pm
Another great line, from a new, great speech:

"We will win by telling the truth."

9:18pm
Obama speaking now.  Key statement: "There are those tonight who are saying that our party is irreparably divided.  That the other side's supporters won't vote for me, and our supporters won't vote for her.  But I don't believe it." 

This is a candidate who believes he has wrapped this up, that now it's time for him to heal the party's wounds.  Let's hope he's right.  Tonight, he's proven he can weather the worst weeks of the political campaign, and still come out with a big victory.  Tonight, he's gotten awfully close to taking the helm of the Democratic Party.

8:52pm
CBS has called Indiana for Hillary.  But NBC is holding off, saying that voting precincts in Indianapolis and northwestern Indiana haven't been reported, and those could hold substantial Obama votes.  Her margin has shrunk to eight points, sitting at 54-46%.  Indiana may not be over yet.

8:04pm
Politico's Chuck Todd just explained that if Obama can keep his N.C. victory over Clinton at 57%, he erases her entire popular vote take from Pennsylvania.

7:52pm
Scarborough and Harold Ford are predicting a double-digit win for Barack in North Carolina.  Who knows?  They've got 0% reporting!  Joe's saying that a win of that size would be a "game-changer", and could force Hillary out of the race by the end of the week.  This is the same pundit who predicted a Clinton sweep of both states just 24 hours ago. 

Ford, ever smarter, calmer, and more pragmatic, declines to go there.

7:40pm
Networks call North Carolina for Obama instantly.  That's a pretty awesome psychological victory for the Obama campaign.

7:11pm
Indiana polls closed, N.C. polls open for another half-hour.  With 5% reporting out of Indiana, it's Clinton 59%-41.  However, a couple polling stations in northwest Indiana near the Chicago media market have been ordered to stay open by a federal judge because of "pollworker error".  

HuffPo claims exit polling shows Obama up by 12% in N.C., up by 1% in Indiana.  Let's just remember—that's probably crap.

• The gas tax holiday, if it was somehow successfully passed by Congress and signed by President Bush within the next few weeks, would save consumers a whopping $28.

• Neither Congress nor President Bush want anything to do with it.

• The "holiday" would actually not even save consumers the $28, since once the tax is lifted, demand will rise, and the price of gas will go up.  In fact, since the gas tax "holiday" is only short-term, there is a good chance that enacting it would actually raise gas prices in the long run, since the tax would eventually be reinstated on top of the recently raised non-taxed price. 

Sebastian Mallaby, in todays' must-read Washington Post column:

If Obama clearly does not share Wright's views, of what precisely is he guilty?  Of befriending someone with repugnant opinions?  Anyone who condemns Obama on that basis should examine his own circumstances.  Real human beings present one another with complex social choices: The dependable work buddy may be unfaithful to his wife; the salt-of-the-earth neighbor may despise Hispanic immigrants.  How many Obama critics have themselves been friendly with someone with misguided views?  What about Bill Clinton, who counted the one-time segregationist William Fulbright among his mentors?

With all precincts reporting, State Rep. Donald J. Cazayoux Jr. had 49 percent of the vote to Woody Jenkins's 46 percent, overcoming a barrage of ads from GOP committees that tried to paint Cazayoux as an ally of Obama, the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination, and of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).

With a poorly funded candidate in Jenkins, the National Republican Congressional Committee and conservative groups poured about $1 million into an advertising campaign that in the final weeks focused on linking Cazayoux to Obama and Pelosi.  The ads accused Cazayoux of supporting Obama's "big government scheme" on health care and his "radical agenda" on other issues.

GOP strategists considered the Cazayoux-Jenkins race a test run of the emerging strategy to pin Obama to many House Democratic candidates, thinking that his liberal voting record and recent controversies involving statements by his former pastor make him a drag on down-ballot Democrats.

Indiana good news?  After a week of steadily rising Clinton leads in the various polls, the latest Zogby has Obama up by 2.  

Last, but not least:  Tom Hanks has endorsed Barack Obama!  He offered an amusing, impassioned home video to announce his support.