The conventional wisdom has it that Barack will win Wisconsin tomorrow. I have never been, and as time has passed have become even less convinced that this will happen. Only until Barack won the Potomac Primary did any Wisconsin poll show him equal to or ahead of Clinton. And even then, these polls have only shown him up maybe 4 or 5 points at most—dangerously close to the margin of error.
Today's ARG poll has Clinton winning tomorrow's Wisconsin primary by six points. Due to not only the white working class Democratic demographic of the state (save Madison), but also the long-time polling lead Clinton has held throughout the primary season there—through Barack's many "momentum" victories—I see no reason to doubt that she will win the state.
And thus the media's circular narrative perpetuates itself once again. Obama beats Hillary anywhere, the media says the Clinton behemoth is doomed, doomed! Hillary performs below expectations by actually winning a primary, and they pronounce her the "front-runner" all over again.
A Wisconsin victory will be especially vexing to the many MSM analysts who for some reason really love the number "ten". As in, "Barack Obama has now won the last ten contests!" They've done it with "the last five contests" after Washington State, and "the last eight contests" after the Virginia Trifecta. They are really dependent on that number ten for their big story this week.
I hope I'm wrong, and I hope Obama does well tomorrow and wins both Hawaii and Wisconsin. But it wouldn't hurt if both the media and, yes, the Obama campaign, would at least acknowledge that the latter is less than likely.
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